Title: European Seismic Risk Model 2020: Focus on Croatia

Original Title: Europski model seizmickog rizika 2020: fokus na Hrvatsku

Authors: Helen Crowley, Vitor Silva, Venetia Despotaki, Luis Martins, Josip Atalic

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5592/CO/FTCE.2019.03

First page: 53 Last page: 70

Publish date print/online: 10/17/2019

Abstract: This paper summarises the development of the European seismic risk model that is being undertaken within the Horizon 2020 SERA project in collaboration with the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation. The main innovation of the current effort with respect to previous initiatives relates to the extension of seismic risk to 46 countries within Europe, the use of a fully probabilistic methodology, the consideration of socio-economic aspects, and the involvement of the local scientific community in the development of the models. Some specific details of the European risk model for Croatia are also presented, together with some preliminary results.

Keywords: seismic risk, seismic hazard, Croatia, exposure, vulnerability

Sažetak: U radu je sažeto prikazan razvoj europskog modela seizmičkog rizika koji se provodi u sklopu Horizon 2020 projekta SERA u suradnji sa zakladom Global Earthquake Model (GEM). Glavna novost u sadašnjem projektu u odnosu na prethodne inicijative obuhvaća proširenje seizmičkog rizika na 46 zemalja unutar Europe, primjenu potpuno probabilističke metodologije, razmatranje društveno-ekonomskih aspekata i uključenost lokalne znanstvene zajednice u razvoj modela. Detalji europskog modela rizika, specifični za Hrvatsku, također su prikazani, kao i neki preliminarni rezultati.

Ključne riječi: seizmički rizik, seizmička opasnost, Hrvatska, izloženost, oštetljivost

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