GEORISK - A RISK MODEL AND DECISION SUPPORT TOOL FOR RAIL AND ROAD SLOPE INFRASTRUCTURE

Paul Doherty, Kenneth Gavin, Karlo Martinović, Cormac Reale

Last modified: 2017-02-28

Abstract


This paper presents a risk analysis and decision support tool developed for infrastructure assets on both rail and road earthwork networks. This three-stage risk management framework, called GEORISK, is specifically targeted at evaluating slope stability for cutting and embankment assets, focusing on slope stability problems, and is initially being developed for the Irish railway network. The first step in the framework involves compilation of existing data available to infrastructure owners in a structured database of input parameters that define the controlling variables. This step also involves initial risk modelling to assess the probability of failure of the slope assets. The output of the first stage are probabilities of failure for each of the network’s assets. In the second stage, the probability of failure is subsequently refined using a condition degradation factor that allows non-standard evidence to be incorporated into the analysis. The probability of slope failure is then combined with a vulnerability analysis to determine the consequential impact of the failure. This allows various traffic and loading related factors to be considered. In the third stage, a slope asset management plan is developed to include mitigation and remediation strategies. This includes a cost benefit analysis (CBA) tool that can be used in parallel with the slope management plan to inform decisions on where expenditure should be focused, offering value for money on annual maintenance budgets. Overall, the GEORISK tool allows allows the key stakeholders and infrastructure managers to move from a system of reactive maintenance and towards targeted allocation of annual budgets for the highest risk assets.

Keywords


risk management, road and rail networks, geotechnical assets

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